Forecasts of Flu Hospital Admissions December 13, 2023

Updated December 15, 2023

Reported and forecasted new influenza hospital admissions as of December 13, 2023.

Interpretation of Forecasts of New Hospital Admissions

  • This week’s ensemble predicts that the number of new weekly laboratory confirmed influenza hospital admissions will likely increase nationally, with 5,600 to 18,000 laboratory confirmed influenza hospital admissions likely reported in the week ending December 30, 2023.
  • This week, 25 modeling groups contributed 30 forecasts that were eligible for inclusion in the ensemble forecasts for at least one jurisdiction. Contributing teams are listed below.
  • Ensemble forecasts combine forecasts from diverse models into one forecast. They have been among the most reliable forecasts in performance for previous influenza and COVID-19 forecasting efforts, but even the ensemble forecasts may not reliably predict rapid changes.
  • The figure shows the number of new laboratory confirmed influenza hospital admissions reported in the United States each week from September 1 through December 9 and forecasted new influenza hospital admissions per week for this week and the next 2 weeks, through December 30. Hospitals are required to report daily laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations to HHS Protect. See COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs [680 KB, 52 pages] for additional details on this guidance.

Chart National Forecast Incident Hospitalizations December 13, 2023

State Forecasts

State-level forecasts show the predicted number of new laboratory confirmed influenza hospital admissions per week for this week and the next 2 weeks by state. Each state forecast figure uses a different scale due to differences in the number of new influenza hospital admissions per week between states and only forecasts included in the ensemble are shown. Plots of the state-level ensemble forecasts and the underlying data can be downloaded below.

Download state forecasts [811 KB, 14 pages]

Download all forecast data [XLS – 404 KB]

Additional forecast data and information about submitting forecasts are available at https://github.com/cdcepi/FluSight-forecast-hub.

Contributing Teams and Models