Forecasts of Flu Hospitalizations April 6, 2022

Reported and forecasted new influenza hospitalizations as of April 4, 2022.

Interpretation of National Forecasts of New Hospitalizations

• This week’s ensemble predicts that the number of new weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions will remain stable or have an uncertain trend nationally, with 800 to 5,500 new confirmed influenza hospital admissions likely reported in the week ending April 30, 2022.
• This week, 14 modeling groups contributed one or more forecasts that were eligible for inclusion in the new hospitalization ensemble forecasts for at least one jurisdiction. Contributing teams are listed below.
• Ensemble forecasts combine diverse independent team forecasts into one forecast. They have been among the most reliable forecasts in performance for previous influenza and COVID-19 forecasts, but even the ensemble forecasts may not reliably predict rapid changes in the trends.

• The figure shows the number of new confirmed influenza hospital admissions reported in the United States each week from September 26 through April 2 and forecasted new influenza hospital admissions per week over the next 4 weeks, through April 30.

Download all national data excel icon[XLS – 10 KB]

State Forecasts

State-level forecasts show the predicted number of new influenza hospital admissions per week for the next 4 weeks by state. Each state forecast figure uses a different scale due to differences in the number of new influenza hospital admissions per week between states and only forecasts included in the ensemble are shown. Plots of the state-level ensemble forecasts and the underlying data can be downloaded below.

Download state forecasts pdf icon[PDF – 947 KB]

Download all forecast data excel icon[CSV – 353 KB]

Epidemic Prediction Initiative (cdc.gov.)

Additional forecast data and information about submitting forecasts are available at https://github.com/cdcepi/Flusight-forecast-dataexternal icon.

Contributing Teams

Carnegie Mellon Delphi Groupexternal icon (Model: CMU-TimeSeries)

Columbia Universityexternal icon (Model: CU-ensemble)

Georgia Institute of Technologyexternal icon (Model: GT-FluFNP)

Guidehouse FluSight Teamexternal icon (Model: GH-Flusight)

IEM Healthexternal icon (Model: IEM_Health-FluProject)

Los Alamos National Lab and Northern Arizona Universityexternal icon (Model: LosAlamos_NAU-CModel_Flu)

LU Computational Uncertainty Labexternal icon (Model: LUcompUncertLab-humanjudgment)

LU Computational Uncertainty Labexternal icon (Model: LUcompUncertLab-TEVA)

MOBS Lab at Northeasternexternal icon (Model: MOBS-GLEAM_FLUH)

Predictive Science Incexternal icon (Model: PSI-DICE)

Srivastava Groupexternal icon (Model: SGroup-RandomForest)

Srivastava Groupexternal icon (Model: SGroup-SIkJalpha)

Signature Scienceexternal icon (Model: SigSci-CREG)

Signature Scienceexternal icon (Model: SigSci-TSENS)

University of Massachusetts-Amherstexternal icon (Model: UMass-trends_ensemble)

University of Texas FluCastexternal icon (Model: UT_FluCast-Voltaire)

University of Virginia, Biocomplexity Instituteexternal icon (Model: UVAFluX-Ensemble)