Forecasts of Flu Hospitalizations January 16, 2023

Reported and forecasted new influenza hospitalizations as of January 16, 2023.

Interpretation of National Forecasts of New Hospitalizations

• This week’s ensemble predicts that the number of new weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions will likely decrease nationally, with 1,200 to 10,000 new confirmed influenza hospital admissions likely reported in the week ending January 28, 2023.
• This week, 21 modeling groups contributed 24 forecasts that were eligible for inclusion in the ensemble forecasts for at least one jurisdiction. Contributing teams are listed below.
• Ensemble forecasts combine forecasts from diverse models into one forecast. They have been among the most reliable forecasts in performance for previous influenza and COVID-19 forecasting efforts, but even the ensemble forecasts may not reliably predict rapid changes.
• The figure shows the number of new confirmed influenza hospital admissions reported in the United States each week from September 1 through January 14 and forecasted new influenza hospital admissions per week over the next 2 weeks, through January 28. Hospitals are required to report laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations to HHS Protect daily. See COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs [669 KB, 52 pages] is available for additional details on this guidance.

Download all national data [XLS – 10 KB]

State Forecasts

State-level forecasts show the predicted number of new influenza hospital admissions per week for the next 2 weeks by state. Each state forecast figure uses a different scale due to differences in the number of new influenza hospital admissions per week between states and only forecasts included in the ensemble are shown. Plots of the state-level ensemble forecasts and the underlying data can be downloaded below.

Download state forecasts [PDF – 653 KB]

Download all forecast data [XLS – 227 KB]

Additional forecast data and information about submitting forecasts are available at https://github.com/cdcepi/Flusight-forecast-data.

Contributing Teams

California Department of Public Health (CADPH) (Model: FluCAT)

Carnegie Mellon Delphi Group (Model: CMU-TimeSeries)

CEPH Lab at Indiana University (Model: Rtrend_fluH)

Columbia University (Model: CU-ensemble)

Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health (NIH) (Model: Flu_ARIMA)

Georgia Institute of Technology (Model: GT-FluFNP)

Iowa State Niemi Research Lab (Model: Flu Forecast)

Johns Hopkins ID Dynamics (Model: CovidScenarioPipeline)

Los Alamos National Lab and Northern Arizona University (Model: LosAlamos_NAU-CModel_Flu)

LU Computational Uncertainty Lab (Model: Hierarchical Compartmental Model)

LU Computational Uncertainty Lab (Model: LUcompUncertLab-humanjudgment)

MIGHTE (Model: Nsemble)

MOBS Lab at Northeastern (Model: MOBS-GLEAM_FLUH)

Predictive Science Inc (Model: PSI-DICE)

Signature Science (Model: SigSci-CREG)

Signature Science (Model: SigSci-TSENS)

Srivastava Group (Model: SGroup-RandomForest)

UGA_flucast (Model: UGA_flucast-OKeeffe)

UNC Infectious Disease Dynamics (Model: InfluPaint)

University of Guelph Dynamics Training Lab (Model: Influenza Piecewise Linear University of Guelph model)

University of Massachusetts-Amherst (Model: ARIMA)

University of Massachusetts-Amherst (Model: UMass-trends_ensemble)

University of Virginia, Biocomplexity Institute (Model: UVAFluX-Ensemble)

Virginia Tech, Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics (Model: VTSanghani-ExogModel)